2026 hurricane season: Could another quiet season reduce insurance rates?

The 2026 hurricane season: Predictions and possible home insurance rate impact

The 2026 hurricane season is predicted to be below average by three major sources: NOAA, Colorado State University, and The Weather Company. The NOAA predicts 3-6 hurricanes, with 1-3 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). Colorado State University and The Weather Company both predict a total of six hurricanes, with two expected to be Category 3 or higher. 

That’s just below the average of seven hurricanes, with three Category 3+. Another season free of mass home insurance claims could move the needle for homeowners insurance rates in those areas.

The 2025 season saw no hurricanes make landfall in the U.S., relieving financial pressure on insurance companies following recent major storms, including Category 4 hurricanes Milton in 2024 and Ian in 2022, and Category 3 hurricane Idalia in 2023.

However, Mark Friedlander, Senior Director of Media Relations for the Insurance Information Institute, notes that hurricanes aren’t the only risk. Severe convective storms and wildfires continue to drive rate increases.

“Even with no U.S. hurricane landfalls in 2025, we experienced more than $100 billion in catastrophe losses last year. This included over $50 billion in severe convective storm losses for the third consecutive year and the largest insured wildfire loss ($40 billion from the Los Angeles fires) in U.S. history,” Friedlander says.

How does an active hurricane season affect home insurance rates?

An active hurricane season, with storms making landfall, means insurance companies pay out many claims and, to recoup those losses, file rate increase requests with state regulators. When multiple major hurricanes make landfall in a single season, the insurance market in those areas is severely strained. In states like Florida, this has caused carriers to go out of business or stop writing business in those states, pushing more of the burden onto other carriers and insurers of last resort.

As insurance becomes harder to find, carriers still offering coverage raise rates to cover the risk they’re taking on.

Several years of strong hurricanes have driven rates in Florida, Louisiana, and Texas well above the national average, with Florida’s the highest in the nation at $7,136 a year; the national average is $2,543.

Did insurance rates go down after the 2025 hurricane season?

It’s too soon to say whether the reprieve from hurricanes in 2025 affected insurance rates. Rate decreases take time to reach consumers; insurance companies must file their rates with regulators for approval. Approved rates take time to reach consumers, who won’t see any changes until the next renewal.

“Most jurisdictions require annual rate filings for home insurers. So, catastrophe claim experience in 2026 would impact 2027 rate filings,” Friedlander says.

Florida did see a slight reduction in rates from 2023 to 2025; Insurance.com data show rates fell by 6%. But with rates nearly three times the national average, that’s small comfort to Florida homeowners. That reduction isn’t related to the lack of hurricanes in 2025, but rather a result of ongoing legislative efforts to address high rates of litigation and encourage new carriers to enter the market.

“It’s important to note we have seen significant price improvements in the Florida property insurance market after legislation addressed the man-made factors of its risk crisis: legal system abuse and claim fraud. For the past two years, Florida has posted the lowest average rate filing increase (less than 2% annually) in the U.S., and statewide average premiums are dropping,” Friedlander says.

Louisiana, on the other hand, saw rates increase by 58% from 2023 to 2025, a jump fueled by severe hurricane losses, inflation and insurance carriers leaving the state; like Florida, Louisiana has a high rate of litigation that also drives up costs.

Despite a 28% drop from 2023 to 2025, North Carolina rates are still up 66% since 2019.

The top five states for hurricane damage are Florida, Texas, Louisiana, North Carolina, and South Carolina. These states all have higher-than-average home insurance rates, and all five have seen rate increases since 2019. Rates in some states have eased since 2023, but all are still above 2019 levels. 

Are hurricanes the biggest driver of insurance rates in high-risk states?

Hurricane losses are among the biggest causes of high insurance rates in high-risk states, but calculating home insurance rates is complex, making it difficult to identify a single factor as the biggest driver. And not all hurricane-prone states are the same; for example, two of the states with high hurricane risk, Florida and Louisiana, also have high litigation rates, which push up rates. And with inflation high and tariffs raising the cost of construction materials, there are many other factors affecting insurance costs. 

“Additional factors impacting home insurance rates include escalating replacement costs (construction materials and labor) and the impacts of legal system abuse, driving a high volume of litigated property insurance claims. More litigated claims generate more insurer defense cost expenses passed along to consumers,” Friedlander says.

Anything that increases insurance companies' claims payouts can lead to higher rates, and hurricanes can cause billions of dollars in insured losses. Whenever there’s a major hurricane that causes widespread damage, it’s likely to have a big impact on home insurance rates in the future.

What homeowners can do now to reduce the impact of future hurricanes

Homeowners in high-risk areas can reduce the risk of damage by taking home-hardening mitigation steps, such as upgrading roofs and windows, installing storm shutters, and removing dead or diseased trees that are at risk of falling in high winds. Both Florida and Louisiana offer state-sponsored hurricane mitigation programs that provide grants for preventative upgrades.

• Upgrade your roof to wind-resistant materials
• Install impact-resistant windows with reinforced frames and safety glass
• Install storm shutters over the windows and patio doors
• Remove any dead or diseased trees on your property that are more likely to fall in high winds

These efforts not only reduce the risk of hurricane damage but also make your home more insurable; that is, it is a lower risk for an insurance company. That makes it easier to get insurance and brings down rates as well.

Hurricane damage still happens to even the most prepared homes, so it’s vital to ensure you have the right home insurance. Review your coverage every year, ensuring your dwelling coverage keeps pace with your home's current replacement cost and familiarizing yourself with your deductibles and exclusions. Don’t forget flood insurance; standard homeowners insurance doesn’t cover overland flooding, which is a major cause of hurricane damage from storm surges and flash floods due to heavy rain.

Sources:

• NOAA. “NOAA predicts below-normal Atlantic hurricane season.” Accessed May 2026.
• Colorado State University. “CSU Hurricane Seasonal Forecasting.” Accessed May 2026.
• The Weather Channel. “2026 Hurricane Season Outlook.” Accessed May 2026.

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